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    EQUITY RESIDENTIAL (EQR)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$70.37Last close (Oct 31, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$70.20Open (Nov 1, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-0.17(-0.24%)
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Favorable migration patterns and return-to-office in Seattle and San Francisco

    Q2: More people moving from suburbs; Salesforce/Amazon RTO noted. Q1: Smaller improvements; cautious outlook. Q4: Less than normal inbound migration, some improvement near year-end.

    Seattle occupancy 96%+, boosted by Amazon’s 5-day RTO; San Francisco occupancy 96.2%, supported by Salesforce’s RTO and limited new supply.

    Consistently mentioned with increasingly positive sentiment.

    Strategic acquisitions in high-growth markets

    Q2/Q1: Similar focus on building scale in these markets despite oversupply. Q4: Reiterated long-term commitment despite high supply.

    Closed on 14 assets ($1.26B), targeting 20–25% of portfolio in Atlanta, Dallas, Denver over next 18–24 months; aims 5% cap rates.

    Ongoing investment priority, expanding Sunbelt presence.

    Efforts to capture rental rate increases through renewals

    Q2: 5% renewal increase, targeting 4.5% into Q3. Q1: 61% resident renewals, high occupancy. Q4: 4% renewal growth guided.

    Renewal quotes at 6.5–7%, expecting 4.7% actual; emphasizes retention.

    Maintained focus on leveraging renewals for revenue.

    Concerns about rising expenses from inflation and expiring tax abatements

    Q2: Property taxes 45% of costs, 421-a expiration flagged. Q1: No mention. Q4: Real estate taxes set to grow faster, 421a step-ups.

    421-a burn-off in New York and inflation “a little discouraging,” potentially pushing expenses above 3%.

    Recurring concern as a key expense driver.

    Utilizing concessions in markets with oversupply

    Q2: Concessions widespread in Seattle, SF, LA, Sun Belt. Q1: Heavy use in Dallas, Austin. Q4: 70% of concessions in Seattle/SF.

    Los Angeles uses concessions to prioritize occupancy; Seattle concessions down 40% YoY.

    Steady strategy to combat supply challenges.

    Shifting sentiment around Seattle and San Francisco

    Q2: Noted strong traffic and partial rebound. Q1: Called “show-me stories” but signs of improvement. Q4: Cautious optimism with some urban recovery.

    Improved outlook: Seattle aided by Amazon jobs/RTO; SF benefiting from Salesforce’s RTO and 96.2% occupancy.

    Progressively more positive over the last few quarters.

    Deployment of leverage for acquisitions despite tight spreads

    Q2: No direct mention. Q1: Cautious given tight cap rate vs. debt spreads. Q4: No specific detail, but noted cost of funds near 5%.

    Emphasizes acquiring below replacement cost with limited spread to cost of debt; sees quick compression in apartment asset class.

    Reaffirmed approach in Q3, underscores basis-driven deals.

    Ongoing operational efficiencies and technology initiatives

    Q2: AI resident assistant pilot, self-guided tours. Q1: AI leasing assistant “Ella” success. Q4: Discussed general tech improvements, no explicit AI mention.

    Launched AI tool for resident inquiries, covering 60–80% of requests; continuing to centralize operations.

    Continual expansion in AI and centralized ops.

    Anticipated outsized rent growth in 3rd/4th year post-acquisition

    Q2: Suggested up to 5% rent growth mid-term, once supply eases. Q1/Q4: Not discussed.

    Projects 4.5% rent growth achievable in years 3–4.

    Recently highlighted as a mid-term growth thesis.

    Continued margin pressures from taxes, WiFi, rising expenses

    Q2: Taxes remain the toughest expense; no WiFi mention. Q1/Q4: Overall inflation concerns noted, but details less explicit.

    Bulk WiFi adds revenue but also cost; 421-a burn-off and inflation continue squeezing margins.

    Heightened focus on offsetting new recurring costs.

    Stable/high occupancy (96%) supporting revenue

    Q2: 96.4% occupancy; key driver of outperformance. Q1: 96.5% occupancy, strong spring leasing. Q4: Ended 96%, good start to next year.

    Portfolio at 96.1% occupancy, strong retention (lowest Q3 turnover).

    Consistently robust occupancy despite market headwinds.

    Expansion markets with high supply, negative same-store

    Q2: Rent challenges expected to continue but eventual relief as starts decline. Q1: Concessions common; negative rent trends. Q4: Dallas/Austin under pressure, negative revenue outlook.

    Atlanta, Dallas, Denver face oversupply, pressure on same-store revenue until at least 2026.

    Ongoing weakness due to aggressive new deliveries.

    Bad debt and extended eviction timelines (e.g. Los Angeles)

    Q2: Eviction backlogs clearing, 30 bps revenue lift. Q1: Noted improvement but still 6-month delays. Q4: 1.5% bad debt, lengthy LA evictions.

    LA backlog down to 4-month evictions (from 6), bad debt near 1%, improved from pandemic but above normal.

    Steadily improving, but still elevated vs. pre-COVID.

    Elevated capital expenditures (renovations, sustainability)

    Q2: Expanded CapEx disclosures for ROI projects. Q1: 3,800 units, 40% higher CapEx, focusing on renovations and deferred maintenance. Q4: No mention.

    No direct mention in Q3.

    Not mentioned this quarter.

    Potential large future impact from RTO & AI-related jobs

    Q2: Salesforce RTO supporting SF; AI initiatives primarily ops-focused. Q1: AI sector a future driver in SF. Q4: No explicit reference.

    Seattle boosted by Amazon RTO; SF by Salesforce RTO and AI sector’s growth potential.

    Increasing discussion as tech jobs and RTO mandates shape housing demand.

    1. Leasing Spreads Outlook
      Q: Will leasing spreads hold next year amid supply?
      A: It's early in the budget process, but factors for 2025 feel similar to 2024. While supply remains heavy, there's potential for catalysts to support leasing spreads. However, we need to work through existing supply absorption before providing guidance.

    2. Acquisition Strategy and Returns
      Q: Appetite for leveraging up for acquisitions?
      A: With an underlevered balance sheet at 4.6x net debt to EBITDA, we have capacity to use debt for attractive opportunities, ensuring accretion over time. The unlevered IRR for the Blackstone portfolio is about 8%, exceeding our weighted average cost of capital.

    3. Market Recovery in Seattle and San Francisco
      Q: Confidence in recovery of these markets?
      A: Increased job postings and return-to-office mandates from major employers like Amazon and Salesforce are driving demand. In Seattle, concessions are down 40% year-over-year, indicating the strongest positive signs we've seen in a while.

    4. Expense Growth Expectations
      Q: Will expenses stay around 3% growth next year?
      A: You may see slight pressure above 3% due to the WiFi rollout expenses and the burn-off of New York tax abatements. However, we'll remain at the low end of cost increases, balancing expenses with significant revenue benefits.

    5. Balance Sheet Management
      Q: How does CP use affect unsecured debt pricing?
      A: Commercial paper provides short-term, low-cost funding (SOFR plus 20 basis points) versus our line of credit (SOFR plus 75 basis points). We balance short-term and long-term issuances to optimize our cost of capital without impacting unsecured debt pricing.

    6. Bad Debt Potential for Revenue Growth
      Q: Potential for bad debt to boost revenue growth?
      A: We expect bad debt as a percentage of revenue to end 2024 around 1%, aiming to return to the pre-pandemic norm of 0.5%. The opportunity lies in the delta between these figures, depending on court system progress.

    7. Capital Allocation: Acquisitions vs. Development
      Q: Why not focus more on development now?
      A: In markets like Denver, Dallas, and Atlanta with high supply, acquisitions offer better risk-adjusted returns. Development is concentrated in areas with limited acquisition opportunities, like suburban Seattle and Boston.

    8. L.A. Eviction Backlog Impact
      Q: Status of eviction backlog affecting L.A. market?
      A: We're over two-thirds through our eviction backlog, with duration dropping to 4 months from 6 months. It may take a few more quarters to normalize, but we're successfully renting units to new paying residents.

    9. Migration Trends and Demand
      Q: Are East Coast markets seeing similar in-migration?
      A: East Coast migration patterns have returned to pre-pandemic norms, both in attracting new residents and in resident departures, aligning with historical trends from 2017-2019.

    10. Operating Environment in Expansion Markets
      Q: Did market conditions affect the Blackstone deal timing?
      A: We anticipated weaker rent growth but secured assets below replacement cost. Early performance is surpassing pro forma expectations. We prefer buying now at better prices despite short-term softness, expecting improvements over time.

    Research analysts covering EQUITY RESIDENTIAL.